Fishing

Gone fishing for a while.

GS

I really like GS and want to ride it higher, I sold it all today though for only +1, had more of course but am really sucking at getting the most out of my trade. I should start peeling again, I used to do that, but am really trying to sit on my trades, rather than trade them. So my GS netted me $469.45

I bought AAPL twice today, 389.98 and again at 392.90, I don't want to miss the run up now that it is acting well after the earnings sell off, that and they may buy Hulu.

I don't think I will be selling anything else today, in fact, it is time to shut down soon, take my kids for lunch and go hiking and bike riding for the day, nice!

AAPL

My profits keep disappearing during the last few days. I did not want to sell AAPL, but it just kept falling so I got out for +24, leaving 10 points out there for sure. I sold WYNN too for +1.33, same thing it started to fall so I got out. Later I got back in and am holding. I also bought my GS back at 134.50.

So for the day I have +$4765, nice I will take it. This puts me at $12,777 for the month. I am holding GOOG which is nice, GS which is green, SS NFLX which is red, SINA which is red, and WYNN which is green.

GS

I went long GS the other day at 126.78, it had fallen due to earnings, so I picked up some shares, I got out today at 131 for +4.13 and $1220.

Some of my positions SINA and WYNN were up nice and I let them fall without taking profits, such a fine line to let a stock run and get out with a profit in time.

WYNN

Today I added to my NFLX short, and entered a buy stop on SINA at $119.25 which was filled at $119.25. I did not sell anything today and am holding; AAPL, GOOG, SINA, WYNN and short NFLX. I will probably need to lighten the load soon or set some tighter stops on a few.

WYNN reported good earnings after market close today and is up a few points so far.

Netflix Simplified

I'm not going into detail on purpose, the details are out there, this is just a simple summary of Netflix as I see it.

Price Increase and Customer Backlash
Netflix just raised their prices by 60% and many customers are cancelling or downgrading. By default subs will be paying for both memberships unless they act. The problem is they did not add any value, people know their streaming service sucks and DVD's by mail is slow, so many will stream while waiting for a DVD, but having to pay for both services is not going to happen. They will lose a ton of customers, which is what they want really. They need to separate DVD and streaming so they can pay for streaming content accordingly.

Starz Contract and Content
Starz and Sony placed their content on hold with Netflix because they had to many users. Either way, Netflix will need to renew this contract to have any good streaming content and the cost will be 350 million or more. They originally paid 30 million which allowed Netflix to grow quickly and provide a false sense of quality to it's customers at the low price offered.

Member Reviews
Netflix removed avatars, nicknames and bios associated with reviews. Not sure why Netflix did this, but they pissed off a lot of customers as many used this feature to find movies they like and read about them. It may have something to do with lack of content. Netflix also removed the Friends feature months back, friends provided a social network within Netflix. Most customers do not want to be forced to use FB either.

Major Website Change Look and Feel
Netflix changed their website to large DVD covers with no text and sideways scrolling and hover for info, this made their site hard to use and hard to find good content, their blog quickly filled up with 5000 (max) negative comments. Again they upset so many customers, many of them leaving just over this change. Making it hard to find content may have been done as strategy due to lack of content. They removed any sorting ability too, which again makes it hard to find movies. Since then they posted they are bringing back sortable lists sometime in July.

Lack of support and response
Netflix has removed email support and has not provided any support given all the changes and complaints regarding their web site and feature changes. Netflix is truly ignoring their customer and again really pissing them off. They have had more and more downtime of late and no communication to the customers when it happens.

Goodwill
Netflix has 23 million users because of word of mouth. Of course advertising is a major part of it, but word of mouth matters a ton. Some customers have been with Netflix for 10 or more years, and many tell all they can about Netflix. Netflix has pissed off those dedicated customers, and they will be sure to tell everyone they know about the problems with Netflix.

Advertising
Netflix spends a ton on advertising instead of simply just trying to keep the customers and loyalty they already have, this is the AOL syndrome. At AOL's height CD's were included in almost every package you could think of. I used them as coasters and we also used to put them in our microwave to watch a good lightning show. Netflix ads are everywhere right now, every banner, every TV commercial, every magazine and within every device.

Accounting
Netflix is very good with numbers, spinning the story and aggressive accounting. Netflix Inc is currently rated as having Aggressive Accounting & Governance Risk (AGR®), receiving an AGR Score of 26 percentile among the approximately 8,000 companies in North America. Netflix corporation is admired for some things, they have fancy corporate policies and employee programs, but they kinda forgot about one thing that matters the most, the customer.

Insider Selling
Every week insiders sell shares, no one is buying. Reed cashes out $1.5 million almost every week.

Bandwidth Issues
Netflix is riding the backs of the Network Providers and network providers are starting to charge consumers for bandwidth used. The consumer will need to reduce streaming and or pay higher network fees. The competition, many who own or have access to content and the networks are not charging for bandwidth used for streaming, pretty smart indeed.

Competition
New competition is coming out every day, bigger and better. Blockbuster for example is hungry, fighting back and has great offerings right now. You can get new movies now, without waiting 28 days, by mail, in store, kiosk, no late fees, games and Blu-ray included and so on.

HULU
Someone is buying HULU, this is a known, probably MSFT or GOOG. One day soon they will announce the purchase, integrate into their business model and kill the competition, think about it.

Worldwide Expansion
This seems like a stretch and with the new pricing, lousy content will most likely fail. It is great hype for the company and the stock, but I think reality will show otherwise one day. I think they are low on money and expansion will cost them a bunch with no guarantee on return. They should focus on their core customers instead.

Stock Price
At $287 and a high PE NFLX relies on shorts to go up, this game never lasts long. I think the longs won't know what hit them when this thing falls hard and fast.

DVD Shipping and Quality
DVD shipping costs are increasing along with labor. Many DVD's arrived scratched and unplayable causing customer frustration to say the least. Some customers even mark the bad CD only to receive it again when the replacement arrives. That is some really shitty quality control.

Streaming Content
Besides lack of content, they rotate out of content quickly, so if you start watching a series many times the series will be removed before you get a chance to watch. I honestly don't understand how anyone puts up with this?

Can of Worms
Netflix has millions of customers who hardly use the service and don't even bother to use it or even cancel. Now with all the attention of late, even those customers are looking at their bill and cancelling. People are standing up and saying what they really think about Netflix content and how much it is lacking or how many problems they have with shipped CD's or how bad streaming can be. I think it may be a while before it is really known how many customers they lose, not sure if we ever will, they spin those numbers hard.

The Chart
This monthly chart shows a rise that usually ends in a fall, every chart you look at that compares with this shows they eventually come straight back down.

Positions

Currently I am holding GOOG, AAPL, WYNN and NFLX. I am short NFLX. I am holding AAPL and WYNN through earnings and am not worried about either. If they miss for some reason or another I will hold and maybe add if it were to make sense at the time. AAPL and WYNN are both great companies and I am pretty sure they will both do very well this quarter.

I may add to AAPL and or WYNN on Monday am as I really only have about half a position on each right now. I like to be at 500 shares for a full position. I don't know what to do right now, I will wait and see what happens in the am.

I was in Vegas last month and stayed at the WYNN, I went down there just so I could get proper perspective on the WYNN Experience. I was so impressed about everything WYNN offers, from the quality, to the people and the experience. The place was packed and it appeared everyone was enjoying themselves.

New Platform

I have been blogging since 2006 and have been through many platform changes. Sometimes the content came with me and sometimes it did not. This time it did not, so it is time for a new fresh start.

I intend to share all my trades here, my profits and losses, and my net gain or loss each month. I also intend to share my ideas and thoughts on stocks, companies and life. If anyone needs any help along the way, let me know.